In other states, even conservative strongholds like Kansas, voters have upheld abortion rights.

But the abortion debate is not in Kansas anymore.

Now it’s in Idaho. And it’s open warfare.

Supporters and opponents have raised $9.7 million — so far — in the campaign over Proposition 1, a voter initiative to rescind Idaho’s near-complete abortion ban. Proposition 1 is by far the biggest political battle in the state, and, sensing opportunity, everyone wants a piece of the action.

“Both sides are working to mobilize people to vote on that issue,” said Jaclyn Kettler, a political science professor at Boise State University.

That also makes Proposition 1 a wild card. The hottest item on the ballot could drive turnout in other Nov. 3 elections — such as the governor’s and the state superintendent’s races; legislative races in Idaho’s scattered swing districts; and the $307 million in school levy requests.

The high-powered opposition

But for now, let’s focus on Proposition 1 itself.

The parochial and partisan opposition is impossible to ignore.

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has contributed $1 million in opposition to Proposition 1. The Catholic Diocese of Boise has contributed $300,000.

The Idaho Republican Party, meanwhile, has gone all-in against Proposition 1. State GOP chairwoman Dorothy Moon has made the initiative nearly a staple of the weekly op-ed she sends to news outlets; six of her last 10 op-eds mentioned Proposition 1 in whole or in part.

Last week, the GOP rolled out a news release touting near unanimous opposition to Proposition 1, from statewide elected officials and Idaho’s congressional delegation. “If there is one issue that unites Republicans across the ideological spectrum, it is that of life,” Moon said. (The only name not on the list: Secretary of State Phil McGrane. Asked about it Tuesday, Moon deferred to McGrane, who did not respond to messages from EdNews.)

For many Republicans, the Proposition 1 fight is more than just a little personal. After all, the initiative challenges abortion restrictions passed by an overwhelmingly Republican Legislature — and signed into law by Gov. Brad Little, who is seeking a third term next month. Little last week voiced his opposition to Proposition 1, saying it would “make abortion far more accessible in Idaho.”

For the state’s prevailing party — and for two of the state’s largest religious groups — fighting Proposition 1 is a matter of seeking to protect the status quo. That alone is a driver, possibly the main one.

The down-ticket implications: two recent examples

The Republicans’ campaign against Proposition 1 is a marked departure from 2018. And it echoes 2024.

Let’s look more closely at both of those elections.

In 2018, the Idaho GOP was virtually silent on the Reclaim Idaho Medicaid expansion initiative. In essence, the Idaho Freedom Foundation led the opposition to Medicaid expansion. Buoyed by a broad coalition of support, the initiative passed easily. Down ticket, Democrats picked up four legislative seats.

In 2024, the GOP and Republican leaders went all-in to fight Reclaim Idaho’s ranked-choice voting initiative. Ranked choice went down in flames, receiving just 30% support. Down ticket, Republicans added three legislative seats.

A lot of variables shape election results. After all, 2024 was a presidential election year, and it proved to be a big night for the GOP, in Idaho and nationally. Meanwhile, 2018 was a midterm election, and those tend to be at least slightly more favorable to Idaho Democrats. In other words, the 2018 and 2024 flips in the Legislature could have been caused by any number of other factors.

Which brings us to 2026. Another midterm election with Donald Trump in the White House, another high-profile voter initiative on the ballot. In next month’s close races — like the battleground legislative elections in West Boise’s District 15, the Magic Valley’s District 26 and Pocatello’s District 29 — Proposition 1-driven turnout could be a big factor.

A rallying point for the GOP’s opponents?

For supporters, Proposition 1 is not only a chance to challenge abortion restrictions that they consider extreme and harmful. It’s a chance to reverse fortunes at the polls. A win on Proposition 1 would be a breakthrough result — not unlike the November 2022 Kansas vote rejecting an anti-abortion constitutional amendment.

While Idaho Democrats can’t match Moon’s op-ed output, they are hoping to benefit from a pro-Proposition 1 turnout. The party’s platform doesn’t directly address Proposition 1, but it says Democrats “will fight for reproductive freedoms including access to legal abortion, contraception, and (in vitro fertilization).”

Little’s two major opponents both support Proposition 1 and are trying to capitalize on it.

Democratic candidate Terri Pickens predicts the initiative will pass, working in her favor. “I think all of those marginalized women who have lost bodily autonomy are going to remind the Idaho Legislature and Brad Little that they would like to be equal citizens,” she said in a recent interview.

Independent candidate John Stegner says Idaho’s abortion laws make it that much harder to recruit medical school graduates to practice in a state that already ranks last in the nation for physicians per capita. “We don’t get that opportunity to persuade them to move to Idaho when the laws are so draconian,” Stegner said in a recent interview.

Pickens and Stegner are criticizing Little on basically any possible front. Private school choice. Nuclear waste shipments. An overall shift to the right — catering to the Legislature’s hardline conservatives. But does any issue drive turnout quite like abortion and a multimillion-dollar showdown over reproductive rights? Not likely.

So who does Proposition 1 help — or hurt?

The Proposition 1 coattails — if indeed they exist — hinge on where, exactly, voters stand on the initiative. The numbers are all over the place.

• Too Extreme for Idaho, the PAC leading the Proposition 1 opposition, kicked off its campaign in July with the release of a statewide poll that indicated 52% of likely voters opposed the initiative, while 41% supported it. The poll came from Peak Insights, a Missoula, Montana-based polling firm with a long list of Republican clients in Idaho and beyond.
• Idahoans United for Women and Families, the pro-Proposition 1 PAC, cites a survey conducted in August 2022, weeks after the U.S. Supreme Court’s landmark Dobbs decision that reversed constitutional protections for abortion. At that time, the pollsters found 59% support for abortion, in at least some cases, and said they found Idaho’s post-Dobbs abortion ban “broadly and emphatically unpopular.” It’s unclear whether the group has more current polling; executive director Melanie Folwell did not respond to EdNews’ inquiries. And the pollster behind the 2022 survey, California-based FM3 Research, has a long list of Idaho and national Democratic clients.
• In the academic arena, Boise State University’s 2026 Idaho Public Policy Survey found majority support for an abortion rights initiative — in the 60% range. Even 45% to 47% of declared Republicans voiced support, depending on the wording of the question.

But the Boise State results aren’t exactly new. University researchers were in the field in November, almost a year ago. At that point, the abortion rights initiative wasn’t even Proposition 1, because it hadn’t qualified for the ballot.

Since then, Idahoans United for Women and Families has launched a $5.7 million campaign to pass Proposition 1. Too Extreme for Idaho has raised more than $4 million. The groups’ ads are dominating the political airwaves — and there’s still 19 days to go.

Two big campaigns, taking most of Idaho’s political oxygen. And perhaps the biggest variable in next month’s election.

Senior reporter Kevin Richert writes a weekly analysis on education policy and education politics.