BALLOT BEAT

A federally registered political action committee based in Eagle can endorse candidates and share an influential voter guide without spending enough money to require reporting to the Idaho Secretary of State’s Office, according to its founder.

Eagle resident Winston Sanders created “Conservatives Of” in 2019, shortly after moving from California. It has since expanded across Idaho and sparked chapters across the country. The super PAC has spent $39,290 since 2023, according to the Federal Election Commission.

“Here’s the beauty of our voter guide,” Sanders told EdNews by phone on Friday. “We literally can push it out with literally zero expenditures, and that’s literally not even an exaggeration.”

Sanders, who has a background in marketing, said the PAC is a grassroots effort that does not rely on a lot of money. That grassroots network helps spread the voter guide organically, without any expenditures.

The PAC has national, state and local groups aligned on the same mission: to promote constitutional conservative values and political candidates.

The name allows chapters to add their locality, such as ConservativesOf: America, ConservativesOf: Idaho or ConservativesOf: Meridian. Sanders said the PAC has people all over the country, but Idaho is the most built out.

Money draws scrutiny, he said, and can lead people to question if the group has out-of-state or in-state funding. By avoiding donations and spreading the voter guide for free on its website and social media, he said the group eliminates that problem.

“We’re really kind of milking everything free for all it’s worth,” Sanders said.

Idaho law requires anyone who spends at least $100 per candidate in independent expenditures to report those expenses to the Secretary of State’s Office. That includes federal super PACs. But, according to Sanders, Conservatives Of does not meet that threshold.

Joe Parris, a spokesperson for the secretary of state, told EdNews the PAC is “probably fine” as long as it hasn’t spent money. If the group is just putting a list of names on a website, it’s likely not an expense, so there’s nothing to report.

“If they have a large audience that is on their own going to this guide, or going to these pages, if they didn’t have to pay to promote it — I guess that’s just good business for them,” Parris said.

He said this gets into a tricky area of campaign finance.

“If there’s no finance, what are the rules around it?” Parris said. “Well, that’s just First Amendment.”

Constitutional and Judeo-Christian values

Sanders said Conservatives Of is not party-centric and sometimes endorses third-party candidates, but the Republican Party’s platform aligns “almost entirely with our values.”

It’s a constitutional conservative organization with an emphasis on Judeo-Christian principles. Sanders said group members are not Christian nationalists, but they do believe the founding fathers were Christian.

“They believed that the Judeo-Christian value system, or biblical value system, was essential for liberty and for freedom,” Sanders said. “That includes the liberty and freedom of other people to practice their religions as well as they see fit.”

To make decisions on who to endorse, Sanders said the PAC has two main criteria: a candidate’s voting record and personal relationships with members.

He said candidates can say whatever they want on a survey, but the benefit of having a vast grassroots network is they often have a member who knows a candidate personally and can attest to their conservative bona fides.

Endorsements

Conservatives Of has endorsed Mark Fitzpatrick for governor and more than 250 other candidates running for the Legislature, county offices and precinct committeemen.

The group has endorsed Sen. Dan Foreman, Sen. Christy Zito, Rep. Jordan Redman, Rep. Clint Hostetler, and candidates David Worley, Colton Bennett and James Lamborn.

click here to view the full list of endorsements.

A Boise political action committee that combats extremism in Idaho has spent more than twice as much on legislative primaries this year than in 2024.

Defend and Protect Idaho has reported $739,047 in independent expenditures this year, up from $309,674 two years ago.

The PAC, formed in January 2024, is opposing 13 legislative candidates, mostly incumbents focused on culture war issues, and supporting 18 candidates, typically more mainstream or moderate Republicans.

Its biggest target is Sen. Dan Foreman, R-Moscow, with $97,875 spent to oppose him. He faces Rep. Lori McCann, R-Lewiston.

The biggest beneficiary is Senate candidate and former House Majority Leader Megan Blanksma, with $26,705 spent in support. She is running against Sen. Christy Zito, R-Mountain Home.

A majority of the PAC’s spending this year, 65%, has gone toward opposing candidates. Other targets include District 20 Senate candidate Josh Keyser, District 33 Rep. Barbara Ehardt, District 1 Senate candidate Scott Herndon, and District 30B candidate Julianne Young. See the full list below.

Where the money comes from

A mix of in-state and out-of-state money funds Defend and Protect Idaho, but voters who checked Idaho Sunshine before Monday afternoon would not have known that, due to an error the PAC made in filing contribution reports.

The PAC’s largest donation comes from Way Back PAC, a federal hybrid PAC based in Wyoming, which chipped in $350,000 this year.

But Defend and Protect Idaho chairperson Gary Raney made errors in five timed contribution reports he signed and submitted to the Idaho Secretary of State’s Office since February 2024. The reports say Way Back PAC is based in Sheridan, Idaho, which does not exist. Way Back PAC is a federal committee based in Sheridan, Wyo.

EdNews flagged the error on Monday to both the Idaho Secretary of State’s Office and Defend and Protect Idaho.

“Thank you so much for bringing this (to) our attention,” Defend and Protect Idaho wrote in an email to EdNews on Monday. “This was, indeed, a mistake. We will go correct it right away!” 

Two hours after EdNews notified the Secretary of State’s Office, staff updated Idaho Sunshine with the correct information.

Before the correction, the committee profile in Idaho Sunshine incorrectly showed 95% of Defend and Protect Idaho’s contributions came from in-state. After the Secretary of State’s Office corrected the error, the profile now shows 45% of the PAC’s funding comes from in-state.

According to the Federal Election Commission, Way Back PAC received $1,125,000 from the nonprofit Western Futures Fund, also based in Sheridan, Wyoming. Another $350,000 comes from Toolbox, a Virginia-based nonprofit.

Where the money goes

Here’s the list of Defend and Protect Idaho’s independent expenditures this year:

Opposition

Support

More than half-a-million dollars have been spent on the race between Sen. Jim Guthrie and challenger David Worley, making it the most expensive legislative primary matchup this year.

As of Thursday morning, political action committees have reported spending a combined $375,107 for and against both candidates, and the two campaigns have spent a combined $128,545, for total spending of $503,652. Guthrie, R-McCammon, is running for a ninth legislative term in District 28, which includes Preston, American Falls and rural areas around Pocatello.

Of the $237,205 in PAC spending on Guthrie’s campaign, 89% is in support. Most of that is from mainstream groups funded by the business community.

The longtime legislator is benefiting from $72,392 in independent expenditure support from the Idaho Prosperity Fund PAC, which is aligned with the Idaho Association of Commerce and Industry, and $72,771 from the Idaho Liberty PAC, which received contributions from St. Luke’s and Micron.

Guthrie also has the support of the WinAg PAC and the PAC for Public Lands.

Two PACs funded by out-of-state money oppose the senator. Make Liberty Win, associated with Young Americans for Liberty, has spent $23,203 to oppose Guthrie. The Citizens Alliance of Idaho has spent $1,844 in opposition.

All of these PACs have taken the opposite position on Worley. PACs have spent $137,902 for and against Worley, with 50% of that in support.

The Citizens Alliance of Idaho has spent $10,498 to support Worley. Make Liberty Win has reported $9,220 to support his campaign. The 36-18-1 PAC, funded by Rep. Jordan Redman, R-Coeur d’Alene, has spent $22,872 to support the challenger.

Meanwhile, the Idaho Liberty PAC has spent $35,114 to oppose Worley and Defend and Protect Idaho has spent $20,078 to oppose him.

Six of Idaho’s constitutional officers have weighed in on the race. Attorney General Raul Labrador endorsed Worley, while Gov. Brad Little, Lt. Gov. Scott Bedke, Superintendent of Public Instruction Debbie Critchfield, Secretary of State Phil McGrane and Controller Brandon Woolf have united behind Guthrie.

Honorable mention: Woodward vs. Herndon

The second most expensive race so far this year is the North Idaho rematch between Sen. Jim Woodward and Scott Herndon, both Republicans from Sagle.

PACs have reported spending $134,570 on the race and the two campaigns have spent $133,220, for a total of $267,790.

Herndon, who is to the right of Woodward and wants to eliminate property taxes, has benefited from independent expenditures from Redman’s 36-18-1 PAC and the Idaho Summit PAC. Rep. Josh Tanner, R-Eagle, is the treasurer of that PAC and Redman is chair.

Woodward’s campaign has benefited from independent expenditure support from Defend and Protect Idaho, a PAC that combats political extremism in Idaho, and the PAC for Public Lands.

With six days until the May 19 primary, there will likely be more money poured into these elections from PACs and the campaigns themselves. We will know more about total primary election spending in June.

The May 19 primary is around the corner, and whether you’re voting for the first time or need a refresher, we’ve got you covered.

School districts are asking local taxpayers for $183 million in funding. Legislative seats across the state are up for grabs. Gov. Brad Little has attracted a crowded field of primary challengers. 

Here’s a quick guide to help you prep.

Where and when to vote

Click here to find your polling place. Polls are open from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Election Day.

Idaho voters who are out of town on Election Day or who want to vote from home can request an absentee ballot here. The deadline to request an absentee ballot is 5 p.m. Friday, May 8.

How to register

Voters can register online here up to 11 days before an election. They can also register at their polling place with a photo ID and proof of residence. Click here to check your registration.

NOTE: In Idaho, political parties choose which voters may participate in their primary election. Learn more here.

Any voter may choose to vote via a nonpartisan ballot, which includes ballot measure questions and judicial positions.

Get a sample ballot

All ballots differ by county, precinct and party affiliation. Reviewing your ballot beforehand can shorten lines and help you research unfamiliar races.

Click here to search for and view your sample ballot.

Find results at IdahoEdNews.org

Check EdNews’ homepage throughout election night for breaking news and results, including a live blog by Kevin Richert and updates on school measures and key races from across the state.

We’ll also share results with our newsletter subscribers. Sign up here if you haven’t.

Find all of our election coverage here.

Five of Idaho’s constitutional officers on Tuesday endorsed Sen. Jim Guthrie for re-election, one month after Attorney General Raúl Labrador endorsed his opponent.

Gov. Brad Little, Lt. Gov. Scott Bedke, Superintendent of Public Instruction Debbie Critchfield, Secretary of State Phil McGrane and Controller Brandon Woolf have united behind Guthrie.

Guthrie faces a primary election in two weeks against challenger David Worley, an Idaho National Guard officer and hardline conservative who believes that Christian morality is the “foundation of Western Civilization.” Worley last year filed a religious discrimination lawsuit against Little and the Idaho National Guard. A federal judge dismissed the suit.

Click here to read Worley’s lawsuit and here to read the judge’s order to dismiss.

In a news release paid for by Guthrie’s campaign, the five constitutional officers said Guthrie has a record of “conservative, common-sense leadership” and has championed fiscal responsibility, agriculture, public safety and rural communities. Guthrie represents District 28, which includes Power County and parts of rural Bannock County.

“This election is an opportunity to keep strong, dependable leadership in the Idaho Senate, and that means supporting Sen. Jim Guthrie,” Little stated.

Critchfield said Idaho needs Guthrie’s leadership.

“Jim understands a fundamental truth: public education is the fuel for Idaho’s economy,” Critchfield stated. “By investing in our students today, he is building the skilled workforce our businesses need for tomorrow.”

Labrador endorsed Worley in early April. In a news release, Labrador said Worley will fight for Idaho families, support border security and hold government accountable.

“Voters are tired of politicians who campaign one way at home and govern another when they are in Boise,” Labrador stated. “David is different. He’ll bring integrity, courage, and common sense to the Senate.”

Guthrie, R-McCammon, was first elected in 2010 and chairs the Senate State Affairs Committee. He voted against the $50 million Parental Choice Tax Credit last year and was the only Senate Republican to oppose the transgender bathroom bill this session.

In his campaign’s news release, Guthrie said he is humbled and grateful for the five endorsements.

“These are leaders I have had the privilege of working alongside to deliver real results for Idaho — lower taxes, less government overreach, stronger support for our law enforcement, and policies that respect the values of hardworking families,” Guthrie stated. “But at the end of the day, this campaign isn’t about endorsements — it’s about the people of District 28.”

Election Day is May 19. Find voter information and sample ballots at VoteIdaho.gov. Explore EdNews’ election coverage here.

Rep. Jordan Redman, R-Coeur d’Alene, last week contributed $250,000 of his own money to a new political action committee and has spent nearly $200,000 in independent expenditures to support like-minded Republican primary candidates running for the Legislature.

Registered on April 26, the “36-18-1 Inc. Political Action Committee” has spent $199,393 to buy advertisements to support 20 candidates from around the state. The name appears to reference the 36 House votes, 18 Senate votes and one governor’s signature needed to pass legislation. Redman’s father, former state Rep. Eric Redman, is the PAC’s treasurer. 

The $250,000 donation was reported on April 30. Redman did not immediately respond to a phone call or email from EdNews on Monday morning.

According to Redman’s campaign website, he is an entrepreneur who in 2005 purchased his parents’ insurance agency, Redman & Company Insurance in Coeur d’Alene. He has also been involved in real estate development since 2018 and purchased several local pharmacies in 2021.

While direct contributions to legislative candidates are capped at $1,000 per election, there are no limits on independent expenditures in Idaho. But PACs cannot coordinate with campaigns when making independent expenditures.

Election Day is two weeks away, on May 19.

Here’s the full list of candidates the 36-18-1 PAC has supported so far, in alphabetical order:

Some voters will have a decision to make on Election Day, and it’s not just who to vote for — but which party’s primary to participate in.

Idaho is one of 13 states with partially closed primaries. Since 2011, each political party in Idaho can set its own rules on who can participate in its primary.

To view sample ballots for each primary in your area, visit VoteIdaho.gov. There are four sample ballots for this election: Republican, Democrat, Libertarian and Unaffiliated.

The Idaho Republican Party primary is closed. Only registered Republicans can participate in the GOP primary. The deadline to change party affiliation passed on March 13.

But unaffiliated voters can change their affiliation at the polls on Election Day and register as Republicans to participate in the primary, as explained by Joe Parris, public information officer for the Idaho Secretary of State’s Office.

“If you’re clean slate and you’re unaffiliated, you can pick whatever party you want and register at the polls that day,” he said.

In a Republican stronghold like Idaho, Parris said a lot of the outcomes are determined in the GOP primary.

“We know that a lot of voters, whether they’re Republicans or not in true practice, they do affiliate as Republicans, so they can be a part of that primary,” Parris said.

The Idaho Democratic Party is open. Any registered voter can participate in a Democratic primary in Idaho, even registered Republicans.

There’s no need to change party affiliation to vote in a Democratic primary.

Unaffiliated voters who wish to remain unaffiliated have a separate ballot, which mostly consists of state and local judges.

The ability to change affiliation opens back up the day after Election Day on VoteIdaho.gov.

Gov. Brad Little’s campaign announced Wednesday that he has secured endorsements from the Idaho Fraternal Order of Police and the Professional Firefighters of Idaho.

While the two public safety unions are supporting Little, the governor earlier this month lost the support of the state’s largest teachers’ union, the Idaho Education Association.

As EdNews reported, IEA members issued a vote of no confidence in Little after he signed a “union busting” bill. HB 516 heavily restricts how school districts can accommodate “union activities.”

“Our members have spoken clearly,” IEA President Layne McInelly said in the news release. “They are angry and frustrated with the governor. They feel his choice to sign House Bill 516, when there were so many reasons to veto it, is a betrayal of his claims to be a supporter of Idaho’s educators and public schools.”

According to the Wednesday news release from the governor’s campaign, Little is the “definitive public safety candidate.”

“The Idaho Fraternal Order of Police stands with Governor Brad Little,” FOP President Bryan Lovell stated. “Governor Little consistently backs the blue and supports Idaho’s police men and women.”

Little said it is an honor to receive the two endorsements.

“Together, we’ll continue to protect Idaho communities,” Little stated.

The governor is running for a third term this year. He faces seven other Republicans in the May 19 primary.

A national school choice super PAC is taking a particular interest in two Idaho legislative races.

The American Federation for Children’s AFC Victory Fund on Friday reported $50,000 in broadcast advertising to oppose District 23 House Seat A candidate Melissa Durrant and District 8 Senate candidate Megan Blanksma.

Durrant is running against Rep. Chris Bruce, R-Kuna, and Blanksma is running against Sen. Christy Zito, R-Mountain Home.

The AFC Victory Fund’s ad blitz comes shortly after its parent organization reported $45,000 in lobbying expenses to support Bruce and Zito.

With the lobbying totals and Friday’s independent expenditure report, it is clear which race is most important to the American Federation for Children: The group wants to re-elect Bruce and fight off Durrant.

Durrant took the brunt of the $50,000 in broadcast ads, with a total of $27,500 in opposition, and Bruce lead the lobbying spending, with a total of $33,422 in support through direct mailings, social media and text messages.

Their May 19 primary is a rematch, and it was close two years ago.

Bruce, a fervent school choice supporter, beat Durrant by just 83 votes in the 2024 primary. The Idaho Federation for Children PAC in 2024 played a big role in that election, spending $80,655 in independent expenditures to oppose Durrant.

In the District 8 Senate race, Zito told EdNews in March that she is in favor of increasing the $50 million cap on the Parental Choice Tax Credit, which offers $5,000 per student to cover non-public school tuition, or $7,500 for students with disabilities.

“There have been over 6,000 families apply for that tax credit,” Zito said in March. “And it’s a tax credit, and it’s less than it costs to educate a child in public education.”

Blanksma is one of two candidates challenging Zito. In a March interview, Blanksma said the tax credit primarily benefits families in the Treasure Valley and not those who live in the expansive rural district Zito represents.

Friday’s independent expenditure report is confirmation that the American Federation for Children will still be pouring money into Idaho’s elections this year, even after the group in early April terminated the Idaho Federation for Children PAC.

AFC national press secretary Brian Jodice told EdNews that shutting down its Idaho fundraising arm and instead using its national super PAC, the AFC Victory Fund, makes for a more “clean operation.”

“We’re active in a lot of states across the country,” Jodice told EdNews in early April. “Obviously, Idaho we’ve cared deeply about over the last few years, specifically, over the last year getting that school choice program stood up.”

But we’re not just talking about campaign contributions or PAC spending.

We’re talking about gambling.

The recent rise of online prediction markets has spread, allowing anyone with a smartphone to bet money on the outcome of a Phillies game, the top Netflix show of the week, when the Iran conflict will end, or who will win the Idaho Democratic primary for governor.

But these are not random events, said Jonathan Krutz, a Boise State University professor emeritus. Krutz, board chairman of the nonprofit Stop Predatory Gambling, has studied gambling since the 1990s. 

“You’re betting on events that other people may have information on,” Krutz said. “You’re betting on events that can be manipulated.”

In a strange turn of events, one prediction market has reported over $35,000 in trading volume for an Idaho Democratic candidate that never even filed to run this year and won’t be on the primary ballot.

The lack of oversight on prediction markets, the possibility of corruption and the risk of gambling addiction are all issues that need careful consideration, Krutz said.

‘Easily manipulatable’

Krutz gave an example. A hypothetical candidate named Rusty Baker is running for the Idaho Legislature. He’s raising money, putting up yard signs and talking to folks on the campaign trail.

Krutz said someone could go on a prediction market and bet that Baker will lose. And then they could do everything they can to derail his campaign.

“How much would it cost me to spread rumors about Rusty Baker, such that he drops out of the race or that he loses the race, versus how much do I stand to gain?” Krutz said.

In another example, Krutz said candidate Baker could file to run, launch a campaign and then bet on himself to lose. Baker could then drop out of the race.

“People are playing in this ‘quote-unquote’ market, thinking it’s a level playing field, that it’s a fair thing,” Krutz said. “It is absolutely not. It’s easily manipulatable, and there is no federal oversight. And the feds are saying that states aren’t allowed to regulate this either.” 

Recent crackdowns

Several developments this week suggest the tides may be turning.

The two biggest players in the prediction market game are Polymarket and Kalshi.

Kalshi on Wednesday announced it had fined and suspended three congressional candidates who wagered on their own elections.

A day later, federal prosecutors released an indictment of a U.S. Army soldier who made $400,000 on a Polymarket bet on the military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. As several media outlets reported, the soldier was involved in the planning of the operation.

Idaho election markets

For a comedian’s take on prediction markets, check out John Oliver’s recent episode of Last Week Tonight.

The Idaho election with the biggest trading volume on Polymarket is the Idaho Democratic primary for governor, with a total of $80,000 in “predictions.”

“We won’t call them bets, but they’re bets, right?” Krutz said. “That’s what they are.”

Candidate Terri Pickens is the front-runner, according to predictions on Polymarket, with a total of $43,221 in bets for and against her. 

But the candidate with the second most trading volume is not even a candidate. Stephen Heidt won the Democratic nomination in 2022, but he never filed to run for governor this year and is not on the primary ballot.

Still, there’s $35,601 in bets for and against him.

According to filings on Idaho Sunshine, Heidt in March of 2024 appointed a campaign treasurer for the 2026 governor race but has since terminated his campaign. The first Polymarket bet on his campaign was placed on Dec. 6.

When the Idaho Democratic Party learned of the Polymarket bet, the organization adopted a policy prohibiting staff members from betting on elections, according to a statement from spokesperson Avery Roberts.

“Idahoans deserve an open and transparent election process and representation, free from the financial self-interest of political insiders,” Roberts wrote in a message to EdNews.

On Kalshi, the Idaho election with the highest volume is the race for U.S. Sen. Jim Risch’s seat, with a total wagering of $42,211. Users can “predict” if a Republican or Democrat will win the seat in November.

State officials know about the markets

When reached for a comment on prediction market betting on Idaho elections, a spokesman for the Idaho Secretary of State’s Office said they are “aware of the existence of the platforms” but will defer to the Idaho attorney general’s office.

A spokesperson for Attorney General Raúl Labrador did not immediately respond to a request for comment this week, but Labrador last month addressed sports betting on prediction markets.

He said in a news release that Idaho has joined a 39-state coalition to challenge the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s attempt to claim authority over sports betting and override state gambling laws.

“States like Idaho that choose to ban sports betting would be prevented from enforcing those bans under the CFTC’s theory,” Labrador said in the release.

A history of regulation, or lack thereof

Krutz provided some background and history on the CFTC and prediction markets in general.

Prediction markets and futures trading are not a new phenomenon.

“As a concept it’s been around for a while in a very tightly controlled box,” Krutz said. “With Kalshi and Polymarket, that box has exploded.” 

In 1988, staff members at the University of Iowa — where Krutz earned a master’s degree in business — created a market to predict election outcomes for academic purposes.

“It was under threat multiple times because of very legitimate concerns that once you start allowing people to bet on elections, you create opportunities to corrupt those elections,” Krutz said.

But there are legitimate uses for futures trading. Krutz explained that a farmer in Idaho can sell a crop in advance and lock in a price to make farming a much less risky activity.

“To say that that situation is the same as me betting on whether a free throw is going to be made or missed — it’s absurd to say that those are the same thing,” he said.

When Kalshi and Polymarket began taking bets on elections during the Biden administration, Krutz said the CFTC attempted to investigate and regulate the markets. But things changed when President Donald Trump returned to office.

As Politico reported, Trump dropped the investigations into prediction markets. The president’s son, Donald Trump Jr., is now a strategic advisor to Kalshi and an investor and unpaid advisor to Polymarket.

“When the Trump administration came in, they just blew the doors off of it,” Krutz said.

There’s one factor that is often lost in these discussions on prediction markets, Krutz said. Betting is driven by addiction, and these companies are spending millions to promote their markets.

“Because of the massive promotion of it, people are trying it out and some of those people are getting addicted,” he said.

As board chair of Stop Predatory Gambling, Krutz said he thinks the prediction markets should be stopped until there are regulations in place and staff to enforce the regulations.

“There’s a reason why that has never been allowed before,” Krutz said. “It’s highly corruptible, and it shouldn’t be allowed now.”