Here’s a not-so-bold prediction: It won’t take the State Board of Education a tortured 16 months to hire the next University of Idaho president.

This next search almost has to go more smoothly than the last presidential search — the one that finally ended on July 1, when David Hahn took the reins at Boise State University.

Smooth and transparent are two different things, however. And transparency is a thing of the past, due to a new state law that moves the presidential search process almost entirely out of public view.

So perhaps sometime next spring or thereabouts, the State Board will announce a successor to U of I President C. Scott Green, who announced his retirement last week. The vast majority of the Vandal family — students, parents, faculty and staff, alums and donors — will have only a vague idea of how the board reached its decision. They’ll never really know why the board made its pick, or who else wanted the job.

In other words, expect lots of secrecy.

What else can we expect this time around? Here are a few other predictions, based on the Boise State search.

Expect a slower start. Actually, that’s happening already.

In March 2025, Marlene Tromp put the State Board squarely on the clock. She abruptly accepted the University of Vermont presidency, in the middle of Boise State’s spring semester, with plans to leave at the end of the school year. The State Board announced its presidential search committee the day after Tromp accepted the Vermont job.

The goal — perhaps unworkable from Day One — was to find Tromp’s replacement in time for the 2025-26 school year.

Because Green is retiring, and not switching jobs, he is giving the State Board a lot longer runway. He will stay on at the U of I through June 30, the end of the academic year. That’s important, because college and university presidents often switch jobs in the summer. The State Board will be in no hurry to get the U of I job on the market for the summer hiring rush. At the front end, that gives the State Board a little more time to assemble a search committee and hire a search firm.

It doesn’t mean the search will be more transparent. Just less pell-mell.

The search committee could offer a big tipoff. The new law sets minimum requirements for the search committee: two State Board members, two university employees, two alumni, a foundation representative and a community representative. That’s all. (And no, students aren’t guaranteed a seat at the table.)

There’s nothing stopping the State Board from naming more committee members. Or stacking an eight-member committee with a distinct emphasis. Regardless, watch the committee makeup. It matters, a lot.

The Boise State search committee had an unmistakable business bent, with representatives from Micron Technology Inc., Idaho Power, the Boise Metro Chamber of Commerce and Blue Cross of Idaho. The committee makeup basically foreshadowed the break from Tromp, a scholar in Victorian literature, to Hahn, a patent-holding researcher who had served as engineering dean at the University of Arizona. And in case the connection wasn’t apparent enough, the committee’s business reps co-signed a guest opinion this summer, hailing Hahn as a “builder” and a budding partner.

There will be behind-the-scenes lobbying. Accept it as a given. As EdNews reported in November, the search committee swiftly received tips on possible Boise State presidential nominees. The committee heard from big-money conservative donor Larry Williams and State Board member Shawn Keough, among others.

Why would this time be different?

“It wouldn’t surprise me to find Vandals out recruiting for the new president,” state superintendent and State Board member Debbie Critchfield said last week. “I mean, they’re going to be engaged.”

Nothing new here.

But now, under the 2026 law, the inevitable behind-the-scenes lobbying may have added influence — because there is no real public component to the search.

Expect the State Board to take as much latitude as the law affords. There really is very little the State Board will need to do in the open.

The board need name only one finalist for the U of I job — not the field of five finalists required under previous state law.

The board need wait only 10 business days before hiring that sole finalist.

Sure, the board could name additional finalists. Or take more time. Just don’t bet on it.

This is the presidential search law the State Board wanted. The Legislature quickly and overwhelmingly passed it. Then, the board followed it to the letter in hiring Hahn, doing nothing beyond what the law required.

That’s precedent.

Don’t expect many answers after the fact, either. Speaking of precedent, the State Board has refused multiple EdNews public records requests on the Hahn hire. The board has refused to release written comments and recommendations, submitted to the search committee by students and other groups. The board has also refused to release public emails submitted from June 17 to July 1 — that brief comment window, when Hahn was the sole finalist for the Boise State job.

The State Board again refused to release these public comments in July — after Hahn was hired, and after the search had come to conclusion.

At the risk of stating the obvious, let’s keep in mind that the U of I presidency is one of the highest-profile (and highest-paying) public jobs in Idaho. The president oversees a $209.5 million-a-year operation that serves nearly 12,400 students, with nearly 1,300 full-time positions.

And as Green noted last week, in a State of the University address that morphed into a retirement announcement, robust enrollment growth is likely to slow, the U of I is in constant threat of losing its most talented employees to higher-paying jobs outside Idaho, and budget cuts from the Statehouse are only adding to the fiscal strain. The next president will have to navigate these challenges and more.

In an open setting.

After a more or less closed hiring.

During a Q&A at the end of his speech last week, Green offered some advice about the transition. Expect a different view and vision. Educate the newbie about the Vandal community. “Just bring them in, open arms, give them a big bear hug … and away we go.”

There’s nothing wrong with a welcoming embrace. Except here, this pretty much sums up the people’s role in the process.

Senior reporter Kevin Richert writes a weekly analysis on education policy and education politics.