Idaho’s colleges and universities didn’t step off the enrollment cliff.

However, student numbers dropped this fall, for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic.

The small decrease — fewer than 600 students, across the state’s eight colleges and universities — is still a warning sign. Especially for Idaho policymakers, who will make it easier — or tougher — for the state’s higher education system to compete in a cutthroat environment.

A ‘mini-cliff?’ What the numbers say

First, here are the raw stats: fall student headcount at the eight colleges and universities.

And here’s some perspective on that one-year, 0.7% decrease.

Fall enrollment last decreased in 2020, during the heart of the pandemic. That year, Idaho colleges and universities lost more than 4,100 students, a 5.2% decrease. (For more backstory, here’s our in-depth 2021 series on the COVID enrollment crunch.)

Enrollment began to rebound in the fall of 2021, and the numbers have generally kept growing ever since. At every college and university in Idaho — including the five schools reporting an enrollment decrease this fall — student numbers are ahead of where they were five years ago.

The 2020 dropoff had an obvious cause: a global health crisis. This year? It’s not quite as straightforward.

“It’s too early to point to a single cause, and our research team is continuing to examine the underlying trends,” State Board of Education Executive Director Jennifer White said in a statement to EdNews Wednesday.

Demographics and national numbers

Higher ed officials, in Idaho and beyond, have been publicly panicking about the enrollment cliff for years.

Their worries center on declining birth rates — a trend rooted in the housing bubble that triggered the Great Recession. Fewer babies translate, eventually, into fewer college-aged young adults.

The U.S. housing crisis reached its crescendo in 2007 and 2008. That should mean fewer college-aged students, starting right about now.

And that’s why Idaho’s enrollment declines, while modest, might be more ominous than the raw numbers suggest. They might (or might not) foreshadow a trend.

In this first fall of higher ed’s new demographic reality, the national numbers aren’t very dramatic. Overall, enrollment actually increased by 0.2%, according to preliminary data released Thursday by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. Among the 18-year-olds — those housing bubble babies — enrollment dropped by 0.7%. (More about this data from The Chronicle of Higher Education.)

Strictly speaking, Idaho’s numbers appear to buck the national trend — although the state’s enrollment decrease was slight, while the national increase appears minimal.

In the long run, a competitive climate

The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, or WICHE, paints a grim long-term picture for the West. A December 2024 report predicts a 20% decline in the number of high school graduates in the region, over a study period that actually began in 2023 and runs through 2041.

But that’s just part of the story.

In California, the West’s 800-pound statistical gorilla, the number of high school graduates is expected to drop by an eye-popping 29%. All of Idaho’s neighbors, except for Montana, face a projected decrease. In Idaho, the number of high school graduates is expected to increase by 13% — one of the most robust growth rates in the nation.

The WICHE numbers would suggest that Idaho could grow its way out of the enrollment cliff, at least to an extent. The numbers also suggest Idaho will be fertile recruiting turf — for out-of-state schools facing an urgent need for college-bound students.

So perhaps one of the most important enrollment metrics is the in-state census. Are Idaho colleges and universities keeping college-bound students home — and selling in-state students on the value of college?

This year’s numbers are not exactly rosy.

At Boise State, in-state enrollment has grown significantly since 2021, when a majority of first-year students actually came from outside Idaho. But first-year, in-state enrollment grew by a scant 10 students this fall.

The University of Idaho, Idaho State University and Lewis-Clark State College all reported decreases in resident students. Idaho State attributed its decline to a 7.7% dropoff at Apply Idaho — the state’s one-stop college application portal.

Keep these in-state enrollment numbers in mind next winter — when lawmakers are likely to again debate the future of Idaho Launch, the embattled student aid program designed to encourage Idaho high school graduates to continue their education in state. And when lawmakers fund the Opportunity Scholarship, an aid program for college-bound in-state students.

And keep it all in mind next spring, after the 2027 session adjourns, and when the State Board sets in-state and out-of-state tuition for next school year. (This year, in-state undergraduate tuition went up by 4.4% to 4.7%, the biggest increase in three years.)

Silver linings: the enrollment growth areas

In some specific fields, colleges and universities can celebrate some robust growth.

• At Boise State, enrollment is skyrocketing in electrical and computer engineering (up 69% since 2022), construction management (up 45% since 2022) and nursing (up 18% since 2022). “Idaho needs nurses, engineers, construction managers, teachers, business leaders and entrepreneurs, and Boise State is preparing students to fill those roles,” President David Hahn said this week.
• At the College of Western Idaho, career-technical enrollment has grown by 71% over five years.
• Idaho State is reporting nearly a 14% enrollment increase in nuclear professions.
• U of I law school enrollment grew by more than 10% in one year, fueled by the largest first-year class in school history.

So growth is occurring. And wholesale growth isn’t the sole measure of success, White said Wednesday. “Our priority is a responsive, sustainable higher education system that keeps college affordable, helps students easily access and complete their education, and prepares them for good jobs here in Idaho.”

Building a responsive, sustainable system takes money, though.

Keep that in mind in December, when the State Board revisits a three-year plan that could guide program expansions on Idaho campus — plans that skew toward healthcare, nuclear fields, and other growth industries.

And keep that in mind next winter, when the Legislature revisits higher ed spending — a year after lawmakers made outsized cuts in the college and university budget.

This year’s enrollment verdict is in — and it’s one that Idaho hasn’t seen since COVID days.

Was it a one-off, or the start of a new trend? Policy decisions in the next few months will play a big role in determining the outcome.

Senior reporter Kevin Richert writes a weekly analysis on education policy and education politics.