Idaho’s statewide primary elections could be dull.

The legislative primaries will be entertaining.

High-stakes races punctuate the ballot from the Canadian border to the Wyoming state line — from legislative District 1 to District 35. Familiar faces. Enticing rematches. Bad blood. Good drama.

If the past two Republican primaries are any indication, there will be some heavy turnover, some unforeseen upsets. But not necessarily a blowout — a decisive result that gives moderates or hardliners an upper hand. The battle for control of the Idaho Republican Party is likely to remain unsettled after May 19.

What makes this spring’s primary unpredictable? Let’s run through the variables.

The recent history. Two years ago, 15 Republican incumbents lost in legislative primaries. That wasn’t a fluke, either. In a 2022 bloodbath, Republican voters ousted 20 incumbents.

You have to go back to 2020 — the pandemic year, of all times — to find a relatively quiet primary. “Only” four legislative incumbents fell that year.

Even if the pandemic primary is the outlier, let’s use the averages for a rough over-under. Over the past three primaries, voters have ousted 13 incumbents per election — more than one-tenth of the Legislature. These elections are trending toward turnover.

Rematches and grudge matches. In District 1, Idaho’s northernmost outpost, state Sen. Jim Woodward and former state Sen. Scott Herndon are at it again. Woodward defeated Herndon in a three-person race in 2018. Herndon ousted Woodward in 2022. Woodward defeated Herndon in a $272,000 showdown in 2024.

The two Sagle Republicans will square off one more time in May.

And it isn’t the primary’s only grudge match:

• Former Rep. Julianne Young. R-Blackfoot, is running against Rep. Ben Fuhriman, R-Shelley. Fuhriman ousted Young by a mere four votes in 2024.
• In the Caldwell area’s District 11, former Sen. Chris Trakel is seeking to avenge a 129-vote loss in 2024 to Sen. Camille Blaylock.
• In the Kuna area, former Rep. Melissa Durrant is taking on current Rep. Chris Bruce. Two years ago, Bruce won by 83 votes.
• In an ongoing Eastern Idaho playoff series, former Rep. Karey Hanks of St. Anthony is challenging Rep. Rod Furniss, R-Rigby. Furniss ousted Hanks in 2018, and defeated her narrowly in 2024.

Grudge matches are fun because of the sheer theatrics. But on a strictly pragmatic level, former lawmakers are legitimate challengers, simply because they have won races before. The longer the 2026 session drags on — and the longer the incumbents are in the Statehouse — the wider the opening for challengers to work their districts and reconnect with their base.

Incumbents in the crosshairs. At least one incumbent legislator will lose in May. That’s because mainstream GOP Rep. Lori McCann of Lewiston is taking on hardline conservative Sen. Dan Foreman of Moscow. This winner-take-all race will also say a lot about the political temperature in legislative District 6 — once a purple outpost of Idaho, but an area that has skewed toward the right in recent elections.

Other incumbents to watch in May:

• Jim Guthrie, R-McCammon. The chair of the Senate State Affairs Committee has been a moderate firewall, a foil to the House and a hairshirt to conservatives. Hardliner David Worley is challenging Guthrie, in a primary the right would love to win.
• Elaine Price, R-Coeur d’Alene. The second-term lawmaker rode the surge of upsets in May 2022. Christa Hazel, a former Coeur d’Alene school trustee, is taking her on this year. It’s a proxy battle between two factions of the local GOP: the hardline Kootenai County Republican Central Committee (Price is a former KCRCC executive committee member), and the mainstream North Idaho Republicans (Hazel is a founding member).
• The Gang of Eight. Every member of this self-named hardline faction faces a primary challenge. That includes challenges in the Magic Valley — where the hardliners stunned and swamped mainstream Republicans two years ago. It also includes a wild primary in a sprawling, four-county District 8. Sen. Christy Zito of Hammett will face two former legislators: former state Rep. Terry Gestrin of Donnelly, and former House Majority Leader Megan Blanksma of Hammett.

Money, money, money. A flood of funds flowed into the 2024 primaries — and not just to big-spending candidates like Woodward and Herndon. Third parties threw $2 million into the primaries, over and above the money candidates raised and spent on their own.

Results were mixed. The Idaho Liberty PAC failed to oust several hardliners, but the industry group, aligned with Gov. Brad Little, but did spend more than $91,000 targeting Trakel. An American Federation for Children-aligned PAC spent more than $300,000 trying to tilt the Legislature to the side of private school choice. Durrant was their top target, to the tune of more than $80,000.

Third parties had just enough success — and presumably have ample money — to play again this spring. It’s hard to envision the costs of elections going down in 2026.

Who actually votes? The legislative primaries are, in the aggregate, a statewide battle for the control of the Idaho GOP. But these primaries are inherently local races, dispersed across 35 districts. Turnout can vary wildly from district to district.

Consider this. In May 2024, more than 15,800 voters turned out for the Woodward-Herndon primary. In the Caldwell area’s District 11 — where voters, paradoxically, ousted Trakel and mainstream House Education Committee chairwoman Julie Yamamoto — fewer than 3,400 people voted.

Unpredictable turnout makes for unpredictable results.

Why do people vote? State and local elections don’t exist in a vacuum. And in 2026, any number of national and international factors can affect the voter mood. Iran. ICE. Inflation.

Meanwhile, the 2026 session provides a strange background for the legislative primaries. The typical election-year culture wars have receded to the background, as the budget has overshadowed all other issues, said Jaclyn Kettler, a Boise State University political science professor. Budget issues could resonate with voters — but it would probably take some level of personal pain for that to happen.

“Does that play out in the primary at all?” she said. “(It’s) going to be an interesting question.”

The only game in town? In May 2022, the statewide primaries put the Republican Party’s split front and center, atop the ballot. This May, Lt. Gov Scott Bedke, state superintendent Debbie Critchfield, Attorney General Raúl Labrador and Secretary of State Phil McGrane are all unopposed. Gov. Brad Little faces a largely unknown cast of seven challengers — a great scenario for a well-funded two-term incumbent.

The local legislative elections could be, more or less, the only game in town. With yard signs and direct mailers to match. But will voters show up, in the absence of contentious statewide races?

They should, says Rod Gramer, a longtime former Idaho political reporter and retired CEO of Idaho Business for Education. Little has largely deferred to lawmakers, Gramer said, making legislative races even more important.

“The Legislature is really where the power in Idaho is right now,” he said.

And over the next 11 weeks, legislative elections will be where the action is.

Kevin Richert writes a weekly analysis on education policy and education politics. Look for his stories each Thursday.