(UPDATED, 8:27 a.m., to clarify historical go-on rates for students enrolling in Idaho.) 

Gov. Brad Little has some extra incentive to spin the latest numbers on Idaho’s college “go-on rate.”

The numbers represent an early test for one of his big education initiatives, Idaho Launch.

“We are improving lives by offering opportunities for Idaho students to stay in Idaho and pursue rewarding careers that help our economy,” said Little, in a Monday news release touting Launch, and its impact on the go-on rates.

Launch, which provides high school graduates with up to $8,000 for college or job training in an in-demand field, has been controversial since Little unveiled the idea in 2023. This year, House Assistant Majority Leader Josh Tanner, R-Eagle, proposed a Launch phaseout bill, although the proposal hasn’t had a hearing.

In this sensitive political climate, it’s no surprise to see Little seek comfort in some encouraging statistics. And it looks like Little is justified.

Fair warning: There are a lot of numbers when it comes to go-on rates, and Idaho’s high school graduating Class of 2024. They aren’t all apples-and-apples numbers, either, so keep that in mind. But let’s start with the numbers — and then we’ll get into the State Board of Education’s research on the Launch connection.

First, the bottom line

All told, 43.6% of the Class of 2024 went straight to college in the fall.

That represents an increase from each of the past two years, when the go-on rate came in at 42.4%.

But really, the go-on rate hasn’t varied much over the past five years — when the numbers, predictably, took a nosedive during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Also, it’s important to put this year’s increase into longer-term context. Idaho has a long way to go to get back to where it was before the pandemic. In 2016 and 2017, for example, just over half of the state’s high school graduates enrolled in college the next fall.

These are “all-in” numbers, taking in public and private colleges and universities, in-state and out-of-state. (Keep that in mind as we go.)

Local snapshots

As always, results vary widely from community to community:

• Five charter schools had go-on rates topping 70%: Meridian Medical Arts Charter High School (83.3%); Coeur d’Alene Charter Academy (76.6%); North Star Charter in Eagle (73.3%); Gem Prep in Deary (72.4%) and Compass Public Charter School in Meridian (70%). Only one school district topped the 70% mark: Genesee, at 76.2%.
• Idaho’s 10 largest school districts rank as follows: Boise, 61.4%; Coeur d’Alene, 58.4%; West Ada, 54%; Twin Falls, 47%; Pocatello-Chubbuck, 43.8%; Idaho Falls, 42.5%; Nampa, 37.8%; Vallivue, 36.3%; Bonneville, 31.3%; Jefferson County, 28.1%. It is not uncommon for eastern Idaho districts to report a lower fall go-on rate, since many high school graduates serve a church mission before attending college.
• The small Kootenai School District reported a 0.0% go-on rate; none of Kootenai’s six graduates went straight to college.

The other bottom line

New State Board of Education research focuses on a different go-on rate: Students going straight from high school to one of Idaho’s public two- or four-year college or university.

It is, of course, a lower number than the traditional go-on rate, because it doesn’t count students who went out of state for college, or enrolled in one of Idaho’s private colleges.

But this number is also trending upward, back to pre-pandemic levels. All told, 32% of high school grads enrolled in a state college or university, up from 29% a year ago. It’s also the highest rate in six years, and just below the 33% go-on rate from 2016-17.

What’s so important about this number, and this particular go-on rate?

Because it measures the Class of 2024 — and how many students went to a state college or university — it drills down on some of the first-year effects of Launch. Students can use their Launch awards at a private college or job-training program, but they must use their money in Idaho.

The demographic breakdowns

The increased Idaho go-on rate — from 29% to 32% — translates into 665 students. Cate Collins, the State Board’s principal research analyst, worked up some demographic snapshots.

Here are the most interesting details.

• Hispanic students account for an encouraging chunk of the growth. Hispanic enrollment increased by nearly 200 students, which means Hispanic students accounted for almost 30% of the enrollment growth. That is significant — in a state where Hispanic students account for about 19% of overall student enrollment and in a state that has long struggled to get Hispanic grads to continue their education.
• Economically disadvantaged students account for almost 30% of the enrollment increase.
• The growth skews heavily toward female students — which isn’t really a surprise. Like other states, Idaho has been wrestling with a chronic higher ed gender gap. Female students account for nearly 70% of the enrollment growth. But as Collins pointed out, male student enrollment also increased, by close to 200 students overall, continuing an upward trend that began after the pandemic.

Measuring the Launch impact

It might be bigger than the numbers indicate.

That’s because, as the Class of 2024 lined up to apply for Launch money, fewer seniors received an Idaho Opportunity Scholarship.

Opportunity Scholarship offers fell by 36% last year, and awards fell by 35%.

When fewer Idaho students receive an Opportunity Scholarship — which is worth $3,500 per year for four years — the state’s overall college enrollment would likely decrease. Not increase, as it did in 2024-25.

Considering what happened with the Opportunity Scholarship, Launch “likely had a bigger impact” on college enrollment, wrote Cathleen McHugh, the State Board’s chief research officer.

And certainly big enough to spin — and Little and State Board executive director Joshua Whitworth were quick to do.

“Our research team has put together a report that clearly shows the importance of workforce training and post-secondary education in Idaho, and that our students are clamoring for more education and training,” Whitworth said Monday.

Kevin Richert writes a weekly analysis on education policy and education politics. Look for his stories each Thursday.

Idaho EdNews data analyst Randy Schrader contributed to this report.