Idaho’s fight over private school choice didn’t end in February, with the passage of a $50 million tax credit program.

Instead, things are likely to pick up where they left off — with $50 million the boundary on the map and the line in the sand.

Advocates will almost surely push to use state or federal dollars, or both, to inject more money into a program that hasn’t yet given out a dime. Opponents are girding for 2026, determined not to cede more battleground to the private school choice surge.

A foreshadow of the fight ahead came Monday night, during an otherwise low-key and uneventful Boise School Board meeting.

Trustees passed a resolution calling for a repeal of the $50 million tax credit — or, if not a repeal, at least a freeze.

Not surprisingly, the board voted quickly and unanimously. Now the resolution goes to the Idaho School Boards Association, the lobbying arm for school trustees across the state, and it seems almost certain to find support from ISBA members. Last November, the membership passed an anti-private school choice resolution on a 7,281-674 vote. (ISBA uses a complicated weighting system to assign votes, but any way you slice it, a 92% majority is pretty overwhelming.)

So, ISBA will likely be in on the fight, and it won’t be alone. Before Monday’s vote, longtime Boise trustee Nancy Gregory noted that the ISBA resolution is in line with the “not a dollar more” messaging already coming from the Idaho Education Association and Reclaim Idaho, which both opposed the $50 million tax credit.

Pushing for a straight-up repeal seems quixotic — since it would require convincing the 2026 Legislature that it made a mistake in 2025. A freeze isn’t quite as heavy a lift.

For openers, the “not a dollar more” coalition can argue that the existing tax credit program is very much in its infancy. House Bill 93, the tax credit law, doesn’t really kick in until Jan. 15. Just days into the 2026 session, parents will finally be able to apply for a share of the $50 million approved in 2025. The answer to the $50 million question — the question of whether HB 93 will satisfy the public demand for taxpayer-subsidized private education — will only begin to unfold in real time during the session.

Another talking point works in the opponents’ favor: Gov. Brad Little’s austerity budgeting strategy for 2026-27. The governor has told state agencies to turn in “maintenance” spending requests — partly because a steady series of tax cuts and tax credits has taken hundreds of millions of dollars off the table. It would certainly take creativity — or something — to argue for an increased private school tax credit when the state is trying to hold the line.

But recent history is squarely on the side of expansion. School choice programs have exploded in Arizona and other states, and this year, neighboring Wyoming’s program morphed into a universal model that is now tied up in court. Idaho critics are convinced — and with justified concern — that $50 million represents an unofficial pilot phase.

Even if Little sticks to his stated commitment to playing it safe — with spending and tax cuts alike — that isn’t necessarily the last word. After all, the 2025 Legislature put $400 million into a menu of tax cuts, way above the $100 million Little committed for tax relief. Lawmakers may well push to expand Idaho’s private school tax credit, whether it’s Little’s idea or not.

And if school choice advocates can’t drum up enough support for increasing Idaho’s funding commitment, Uncle Sam is a new player in the debate.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which President Donald Trump signed on July 4, culminates a longstanding conservative campaign for national private school choice. The tax credit program has no spending cap, The Hill reported last week, but states will need to opt into the program.

Idaho political leaders dislike and distrust federal funding, except when they don’t. And in this instance, the feds are putting their money into something that a majority of legislators support in the first place. Around the Idaho Statehouse, the opt-in requirement seems like more of a formality than an obstacle.

A year ago, the battle began at zero. Would Idaho join other states — particularly fellow red states — and create a private school choice program?

Now, the battle will begin at $50 million, and it should be every bit as heated.

Kevin Richert writes a weekly analysis on education policy and education politics. Look for his stories each Thursday.