ICOM is looking more and more like Phoenix 2.0.

The parallels between Idaho State University’s flirtation with the Idaho College of Osteopathic Medicine and the University of Idaho’s failed bid for the University of Phoenix are impossible to ignore.

In both cases, a state university is looking to purchase a private, for-profit institution. And in both cases, the state’s policymakers are working somewhat in the dark. Private partners demand and expect, well, privacy.

This reality quickly came into sharp focus Monday, as a state medical education task force met at the Statehouse and continued to kick around ideas for addressing Idaho’s doctors’ shortage.

Kevin Campbell — principal budget and policy analyst for the Legislative Services Office, the Legislature’s support arm — walked the task force through a variety of short- and long-term options. Subsidizing medical school seats at the University of Washington, the University of Utah and ICOM. Building out a University of Idaho-Utah medical education satellite campus in Boise. Buying ICOM outright.

Campbell presented the task force with a meticulous matrix, laying out costs and constraints and pros and cons. For pretty much every option, except for a purchase of ICOM.

“There is, unfortunately, little data available,” Campbell told the task force, which is studying the medical education crisis at the Legislature’s behest.

The problem: ICOM’s private owners will release no financial data without a nondisclosure agreement.

This sounds familiar, and it should. Phoenix, a polarizing power player in the online higher ed sector, insisted on the same level of confidentiality in 2023. The State Board of Education and the U of I went along. And Idaho’s K-20 policymaking body and the state’s land-grant institution kept the rest of the state in the dark, before abruptly announcing a $685 million acquisition plan.

It’s a little different this time around. At least it’s a matter of public record that Idaho State is interested in ICOM. Idaho EdNews reported this first in November — after obtaining an email, from Idaho State President Robert Wagner to House Speaker Mike Moyle, that said the university was exploring the “feasibility” of a purchase.

So it’s no secret that Idaho State wants to buy ICOM — which operates, in partnership with Idaho State, next door to the university’s Meridian campus. In the university’s strongest public statement to date, vice president for health sciences Rex Force made a pointed pitch to medical education task force colleagues at their Oct. 20 meeting. “A public purchase of ICOM needs to be finalized over the next couple of years.”

But what would Idaho get by acquiring a medical school that already operates within the state’s borders, in concert with Idaho’s lead university in the health care arena? And exactly how much would it cost a cash-strapped state to buy a medical school?

Seeking answers to these questions, Idaho State shelled out $100,000 to a national consultant, Tripp Umbach of Kansas City, Mo. A final report — studying the economic impact of an ICOM purchase and determining fair-market value for the college — is expected this month. As of Tuesday, neither Idaho State nor the Legislative Services Office has seen a copy. EdNews asked Tripp Umbach for a status update, but received no response Tuesday.

In the meantime, ICOM President Tracy Farnsworth held the company line at Monday’s task force meeting. He said he regrets that ICOM’s owners can’t share proprietary data about a property that will almost certainly change hands in the future. Farnsworth said he hopes the owners will be able to provide answers, in some way, to the policymakers who would have to approve a sale.

“I think we can get there,” Farnsworth said. “I hope we can.”

While ICOM keeps its sticker price to itself, here’s a comparison to consider.

On Monday, Campbell said it would cost Idaho $250 million to start up its own medical school, and possibly more. Annual operating costs would run anywhere from $20 million to $50 million.

And that’s for a medical school that can take 100 to 200 students per year — a school smaller than ICOM, which accepts 220 first-year students at a time.

A state-owned medical school probably wouldn’t be Phoenix expensive; after all, Phoenix is a behemoth that serves more than 80,000 students, dwarfing the university that spent more than two years trying to buy it. But if $250 million is a stab at the sticker price for a new medical school, an ICOM acquisition could be the biggest transaction in the history of Idaho higher education.

It’s worth remembering why lawmakers slammed the brakes on Phoenix — and how the ICOM deal compares.

Yes, the Phoenix fiasco left some lawmakers bruised and bristled; caught off guard, they were eager to send a message to the U of I and the State Board. Wagner hasn’t made the same mistake. He’s had enough political common sense to bring Moyle and other lawmakers into the loop.

But the Phoenix purchase also sunk under the weight of unanswered questions. While the U of I proposed to manage Phoenix through a separate nonprofit, opponents still were worried that the state would be on the hook if the deal went sour. Risk aversion ran deep and crossed the aisle. Hardline Republicans and legislative Democrats were among the biggest skeptics.

Right now, a whole host of big unknowns surround a possible ICOM purchase: costs and benefits, financing and risks. Those questions won’t necessarily go unanswered forever. But they are the kind of questions that brought Phoenix 1.0 to a grinding halt.

Kevin Richert writes a weekly analysis on education policy and education politics. Look for his stories each Thursday. Due to the timeliness of the topic, this week’s analysis was published on Wednesday, Oct. 29.

Click here for more in-depth coverage of Idaho’s medical education debate.