New elementary schools Warhawk and Falcon Ridge will alleviate overcrowding in the Vallivue School District, but assistant superintendent Joseph Palmer worries they won’t be enough as the population continues to grow in the community.

Palmer predicts the two new schools will fill within about five years, with projections suggesting nearby Lakevue and Central Canyon elementary schools will soon be overcrowded again.

“It’s just a vicious cycle. But for the time being, having something is better than nothing… So we don’t take it for granted,” said Palmer.

Though Caldwell was recently designated the state’s fastest-growing city, the state’s geographically smallest school district, Caldwell, at 22.09 square miles, has seen a decline in enrollment.

“We’re somewhat landlocked by Vallivue School District and the majority of the growth has happened outside those boundaries,” said Cheryl Sanderson, the Caldwell district’s chief financial officer, at a board meeting in June.

Caldwell is experiencing rapid growth, almost all within Vallivue’s enrollment boundaries. To complicate matters, Nampa is also growing. Both cities are approving developments in Vallivue’s boundaries, said Palmer, contributing to enrollment in the area Warhawk will serve.

Caught in the middle of converging suburban developments, Palmer must act as go-between for the two city councils — a duty which could warrant a full-time position. 

“We are at the mercy of whether our voters in the Vallivue boundaries want to continue passing bonds to meet the needs of a growing community. We’re also at the mercy of city councils deciding whether or not they want to take the input from the Vallivue district as a variable in their decision to approve or deny developments,” said Palmer.

Caldwell city council member Diana Register said that if it were up to her, Caldwell would adopt a policy Middleton uses, requiring the city to analyze school capacity before approving new subdivisions.

The Middleton school district faces similar overcrowding challenges, and struggles to pass a bond. The superintendent has suggested redrawing elementary school boundaries to redistribute students toward the district’s less-crowded school.

Vallivue redrew elementary school boundaries in 2024, sending Lakevue students to Central Canyon Elementary, which quickly exceeded capacity. Falcon Ridge will help alleviate that overcrowding.

“It takes years to plan, bond, design and build a school. Yet residential growth can happen almost overnight by comparison,” said Register in an email to Idaho Education News.

Register worries that if Caldwell continues to approve high-density development without considering the strain on schools, they risk losing their voters’ trust, and possibly failed future bond efforts.

“Overbonding isn’t just a risk to our financial health, it’s a threat to the viability of our education system,” Register said.

In 2023, Vallivue overcame voter insouciance and passed a $78 million bond to build Falcon Ridge and Warhawk Elementary schools after two failed attempts in 2022. Vallivue has consistently passed a supplemental levy for many election cycles as well, with their most recent $14 million two-year levy passing in May.

The key to passing the bond in 2023, Palmer said, “was battling the myths a lot of no-votes were putting out there.” Palmer created a log of constituent feedback, taking note of the main arguments against the bond. He then put together five videos addressing the five “main myths.”

“I said ‘vote yes or no, that’s fine. But vote yes or no with accurate information.’”

The overcrowding at six Vallivue elementary schools has a range of effects, from increased class sizes to difficulty hiring teachers. Last year, Lakevue was around 300 students over capacity, and Palmer said portable classrooms are not as appealing as the traditional classroom.

“The staff feels disconnected from the main staff whenever they need to collaborate… It’s hard to say ‘we’d love to offer you a job, however, you’re going to be working in a portable building that probably doesn’t have the best HVAC system and you’re not going to have access to a bathroom that’s close,” said Palmer.

While Falcon Ridge and Warhawk offer a “relief valve,” Palmer said it’s only a matter of time before Caldwell and Nampa approve nearby housing developments that will bring the schools to their maximum capacity – or beyond.

Behind Falcon Ridge Elementary is an unobstructed view of the Treasure Valley, permitted by acres of farmland. Housing development Verbena Ranch will soon change that with more than 1,000 homes.

Palmer is grateful to be able to open two new schools to adequately serve Vallivue students, but the estimation that the district’s schools will reach capacity before 2030 hangs heavy in his mind. Register worries, too.

“If we don’t act now, we’re setting ourselves up for a cycle of overcrowding, rushed bonds and frustrated communities… I’m not suggesting a moratorium. I’m suggesting we align our growth with long-term infrastructure planning, including schools. Smart growth means being proactive, not reactive,” said Register.