State revenues beat forecasts for November

Thanks to a strong November, Idaho’s revenues beat projections and are running ahead of year-to-date forecasts.

According to the Division of Financial Management’s most recent Idaho General Fund Revenue Report, November’s state revenue receipts came in at $224.1 million. That beat the forecast by $8 million, or 3.7 percent. On a year-to-date basis, revenues have beat projections by 0.5 percent, or $6.5 million.

State revenue receipts are an important component of the state’s public school funding picture, because K-12 spending is the largest annual expense to Idaho’s general fund.

November’s revenues came in strong because all three major revenue sources — the individual income tax, the corporate income tax and sales tax receipts — beat expectations. Last month, the individual income tax receipts performed strongest, beating expectations by $4.7 million. State budget analysts attributed the individual income tax increase to withholding payments and filing collections that were both higher than expected.

Based on the year-to-date revenue performance, Legislative Services Office analysts project the state’s ending balance to come in at $113.9 million on June 30, the end of the fiscal year. That’s $102.3 million more than projected when lawmakers adjourned the last legislative session on April 11.

This monthly revenue report is one of the last major financial reports that will be published before Jan. 11, when lawmakers return to the Statehouse to kick off the 2016 session.

The Legislature’s Economic Outlook and Revenue Assessment Committee are scheduled to begin developing new and revised revenue forecasts on Jan. 7 and 8.

Idaho general fund revenues, by the numbers:

  • November 2015 forecast: $216.1 million.
  • November 2015 actual: $224.1 million, up 3.7 percent.
  • Year-to-date forecast: $1.238 billion.
  • Year-to-date actual: $1.244 billion, up 0.5 percent.
  • November 2014 actual: $214.6

Sources: Idaho Division of Financial Management, Legislative Services Office.